UF: Rise in Florida’s consumer confidence

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Sept. 28, 2011 – Florida’s consumer confidence index rose this month to 64, up three points from a revised mark of 61 in August. However, confidence still remains low, according to the University of Florida (UF) survey.

Of the five components used by UF researchers to measure overall confidence, four edged upward. Expectations that personal finances would rise in the coming year went up five points to 78, and consumer anticipation that the U.S. economy will improve in the coming year rose by one point to 52. There was also a four-point increase to 66 in the overall expectation that the country will see economic gains during the next five years. Confidence that now is a good time to purchase retail big-ticket items, such as laptops and cars, rose six points to 74.

“It is not surprising that confidence rose this month as we get further from the debt-ceiling debate,” says Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research and Survey Research Center, which conducted the survey. “Confidence actually rose this month among both younger and older respondents.”

The only component to show a decline in September was the perception that personal finances today are lower than a year ago. It fell by three points to 50.

According to the survey, Florida’s seniors, whose perceptions accounted for much of the decline in August, remain pessimistic about the economy in both the short and long run. Confidence levels of those over 60 are at “record lows,” McCarty says.

The ongoing national debate over spending cuts and entitlements is only partly responsible for sluggish confidence levels. Florida’s unemployment rate also remained stuck at 10.7 percent for the past three months. In addition, a loss of government jobs along with those in other sectors offset employment gains in a rebounding tourist industry. Moreover, tourism itself could face temporary setbacks if economic troubles worsen in Europe.

Other indicators also affect the perceptions of Florida consumers. The median price of an existing single-family home in Florida went up slightly in August to $137,500. A drop in gas prices since August was a typical market adjustment following Labor Day, McCarty says. Finally, a volatile stock market that sharply declined in July and took dramatic swings in August and September could also be taking a toll on confidence.

McCarty expects consumer confidence to remain lackluster until next year, given the looming deadline of Nov. 23 for the deficit reduction plan by the U.S. Congress’ super-commission. He thinks it will reignite debates over federal spending and again shake consumer confidence.

The UF survey measures the mood of consumers 18 or older, living in households, who were randomly telephoned Sept. 11-22. The preliminary index for September was collected from 410 respondents.

The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2; the highest is 150.

Source: © 2011 Florida Realtors®

Consumer confidence rises a bit in Sept.

NEW YORK – Sept. 26, 2011 – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in August, remained essentially unchanged in September. The Index now stands at 45.4, up slightly from 45.2 in August.

The Present Situation Index decreased to 32.5 from 34.3. The Expectations Index, which gauges expectations for the future, edged up to 54.0 from 52.4 last month.

“The pessimism that shrouded consumers last month has spilled over into September,” says Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. “Consumer expectations, which had plummeted in August, posted a marginal gain. However, consumers expressed greater concern about their expected earnings, a sign that does not bode well for spending. In addition, consumers’ assessment of current conditions declined for the fifth consecutive month, a sign that the economic environment remains weak.”

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions weakened in September. Those claiming business conditions are “good” decreased to 11.7 percent from 14.1 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” remained virtually unchanged at 40.4 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of employment conditions, however, was mixed. Those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased to 50.0 percent from 48.5 percent, while those stating jobs are “plentiful” increased to 5.5 percent from 4.8 percent.

Consumers’ short-term outlook, which had deteriorated sharply last month, improved slightly in September. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased to 11.3 percent from 11.8 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen declined to 22.6 percent from 24.6 percent.

Consumers were also slightly less pessimistic about the outlook for the job market. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead edged up to 12.0 percent from 11.8 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs declined to 28.6 percent from 31.2 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes, however, declined to 13.3 percent from 14.3 percent.

Nielsen conducts the monthly Consumer Confidence Survey for The Conference Board. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 15th.

Source: © 2011 Florida Realtors®

Feds: House prices rose for second month

WASHINGTON – July 21, 2011 – U.S. house prices rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from April to May, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. The previously reported 0.8 percent increase in April was revised to a 0.2 percent increase.

For the 12 months ending in May, U.S. prices fell 6.3 percent. The U.S. index is 19.6 percent below its April 2007 peak and roughly the same as the January 2004 index level.

The FHFA monthly index is calculated using purchase prices of houses backing mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. For the nine Census Divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from April to May ranged from -1.0 percent in the West South Central Division to +2.0 percent in the Mountain Division.

Source: www.floridarealtors.org
Source: © 2011 Florida Realtors®